To what extent are the 2021–2023 inflation shock and increased migration pressure associated with subsequent political changes?
The analysis is observational. Model estimates describe associations in the fitted sample; they do not establish causal effects.
Inflation over time
Estimated probability under the fitted model
These values are model-based estimates for the latest election observation available for the selected country.
Four logistic-regression specifications
Estimated probability by country (V1 model)
Each dot is a country, colored by the V1 model's estimated probability of government change at its latest election in the panel. Click a dot to load that country above. Positions are schematic (by capital city), not a precise map projection.
What drives each model's estimate
Model inputs
What the results show
Across the 79 election observations in 28 European countries, the fitted models did not detect statistically significant associations between inflation, migration-pressure measures, and government change.
The estimates have relatively wide confidence intervals. With 42 government-change events, the sample has limited statistical power for detecting modest associations.
This dashboard presents the fitted model output rather than a forecast, causal estimate, or real-world political-risk score.